The Death of the Task Economy

TL;DR: AI is not replacing businesses. It is replacing tasks. If your revenue is tied to the doing, the filling out, the coding, the processing, or the execution, your margins will compress as automation gets cheaper and faster. But if your revenue is tied to outcomes, certainty, accountability, and results, your value can actually increase. The companies that thrive will reposition from selling work to selling purpose. Sell the cure, not the scan.

Why AI Isn’t Killing Jobs. It’s Killing Commodities.

Most business owners are asking the wrong question about AI.

They’re asking, “Is this going to replace me?” That’s not the real risk.

The real risk is this…Are you selling tasks… or are you selling outcomes?

I was listening to a discussion about AI and something clicked hard for me.

Back in 2016, Geoffrey Hinton predicted AI would eliminate radiologists. He was wrong. Radiologists make more today than they did then.

Why?

Because reading a scan is a task. Diagnosing a disease is a purpose.

AI made scans faster and cheaper. It did not eliminate the need for judgment, certainty, accountability, and trust.

This is Jevons Paradox in action. When something becomes cheaper and more efficient, we do not use it less. We use it more.

AI will not eliminate value, It will eliminate commodities.

If your revenue is tied to the doing, your revenue is racing to zero. If your revenue is tied to the outcome, demand may actually expand.

So the real question is simple…

Are you charging for the scan? Or are you charging for the cure?

The Red and Green Test

Here is the exercise I want you to run this week. Pull up your P&L. Take a red highlighter and a green one.

• Red is task revenue.

• Green is outcome revenue.

Tasks are things AI can replicate.
Outcomes are things customers emotionally value.

For example:

• Filing tax forms is red.

• Preserving wealth and reducing liability is green.

• Creating an LLC is red.

• Protecting someone’s assets and peace of mind is green.

• Writing code is red.

• Architecting a system that solves a mission critical problem is green.

The market is compressing red revenue toward zero.

Green revenue scales.

When we evaluate companies for acquisition now, this lens changes everything. If 75 percent of a firm’s revenue is tax prep, that is a declining asset class.

But if that same firm reframes itself as a wealth strategy platform, integrates automation, and elevates advisory, now we are buying durability.

Same company. Completely different valuation.

If you are a seller, this matters. If you are a buyer, this matters even more.

The SaaS Illusion

SaaS founders should be paying attention.

Software used to be defensible. Now a small team can build meaningful internal systems in weeks.

What used to cost millions in development can now be replicated fast if it is only task software.

The moat is not the code. The moat is the integration of software into a meaningful outcome.

Software by itself is becoming red.

Software wrapped in accountability, expertise, and service becomes green.

That is why the future is not software alone.

It is software enabled results.

The One Star Inversion

If you want to stress test your business, run this inversion. What would it look like if we did not care?

Imagine delivering your service with zero empathy. Just the checklist. Just the motions. Just the task.

That is a one star experience, now imagine the opposite.

What would a 10 star experience look like? Not more tasks. Not more steps.

• Better outcomes.

• Better certainty.

• Better uptime.

• Better peace of mind.

The gap between one star and seven star is where your margin lives.

We crossed 10,000 Google reviews at 4.9 stars in one of our businesses. That did not happen because we filled out forms faster. It happened because we framed our role around risk reduction and wealth preservation, not paperwork.

That is the shift.

The Window Is Closing

Here is the uncomfortable truth.

There is a long runway before robots can replicate human experience at scale. There is a very short runway before AI destroys task based pricing.

If your business is built on tasks, the clock is ticking. If your business is built on outcomes, AI becomes leverage.

This is not about surviving AI. It is about repositioning before your market forces you to.

So here is my challenge to you.

What percentage of your revenue is red? And what would it take to flip that ratio so that most of your business is green?

Because in the next three years, that ratio may determine whether your company compresses… or compounds.

What are you selling right now… the scan or the cure?

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Whats Going On Recently

Smart buyers are already discounting your EBITDA for AI risk.

The conversation isn’t just about margins anymore. It’s about which parts of your business survive automation and which don’t.

Sophisticated acquirers are quietly adjusting valuations based on how exposed you are to disruption.

But here’s the part most sellers miss: the same force that lowers multiples can also justify higher ones, if positioned correctly.

I break down how to think about AI in valuation conversations in a short video.

Want to see how to defend and even expand, your multiple in an AI world? Watch the video below.

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